Conserv. Biol. 11(2): 467-481. 3 tabs. 5 figs. Apr. 1997.

–Spanish summ. Computer modeling, based on data fron 1,212 salvaged carcasses, projects an unacceptably low probability of population persistence over 1,000 years. A 10% increase in adult mortality, or a 10% decrease in reproduction, would cause extinction within that period, whereas a 10% decrease in adult mortality would allow slow population growth. Increasing numbers of people and boats portend an increase in manatee mortality; therefore, without effective regulation of boating, the Florida manatee is likely to decline slowly to extinction.